Threat Analysis & Combat Priorities.

Threat Analysis & Combat Priorities.

We've been taught to react to a threat. We've also practiced the art of the shot. But how many times have you had the opportunity to learn how to assess the threat in a dynamic setting?

In service at the Company and Battalion level combat, I was trained and taught to take out the weapons of mass destruction & leadership first; the Leadership hierarchy...company commander, platoon leader. With this you also take out the most important asset they have...their RTO's (Radio Telephone Operators) which could call in a world of hurt on you with artillery/mortars. Then you take out the rocket launchers and machine gunners. They will kill you most quickly. Then you take out the targets that have some talent and then the random targets of opportunity. That is if it were a perfect world. But we don't really engage opposing forces as sophisticated now unless the big one happens with either China or Russia and I'll be way too old for that fight.

But as the regular schmo' on the street?

How about street level? Not necessarily as a cop/enforcer...but as a regular guy. As a guy that wore a badge and uniform you're under the microscope as it is in a unfriendly environment cause the uniform either gets compliance by professional conduct or it will bring out the worst in some people. Due to this we get all the information before we arrive, who's involved, their history, current affiliations, weapons involved. We look at body language and use common sense which isn't so common and attempt to anticipate the subject's movement or actions. But as the regular guy, we don't know those variables either do we?

How about as a regular guy?

I generally still stick to little things that I learned as a cop. I preach it at the academy and I try to practice it in my everyday world as a former sheepdog. I try not to look like an easy mark to begin with. I look like a cop unfortunately even when I'm just putzing at the local grocery store. It must be my demeanor and my high n tight haircut. I'm also 6'2" and 250 lbs. Plus I don't go into the nasty parts in town. The slum areas. Why would you want to go into unfamiliar territory and stick out like a sore thumb? When I'm at a stoplight, I try not to be exactly side by side with the car on my left. I tend to stop so I'm a bit behind them at an angle. That would help prevent someone with a wild hair get a clear side to side shot at me. Will it happen? Most likely no but could it? Maybe. You never know. I also tend to stop my vehicle about a 1/2 a car short for two reasons; I can clearly read their plate number...just an old habit there but it could be pertinent as a regular schmo but more importantly, I want to have a bit of maneuvering room just in case I need to egress out of that AO and I try not to be stuck in the center lane for the same reason at stops. I'm a bit more situationally aware than the average guy. I watch folks that walk by and observe my surroundings. It's a bit of defensive driving mixed with defensive observation all together. Because of this habit, I have at least avoided a few accidents when someone runs a light or mistakes that green light for their own. Just because the statistical likelihood that it won't happen doesn't mean it can't happen. Same thing when wearing a firearm. What's the real probability of you getting car jacked right at the light? Very slim but considering the news that we see everyday, could it happen? Absolutely. It can happen so with the little things I do or why I wear a handgun. I'd rather have it and not need it rather need it and not have it.

Steps. What the hell does that mean? Simple. How many steps does it take to deploy your piece ready to go where all you'd have to do is squeeze the trigger?

Lemme give you a quick scenario; I'm sitting at a light a car back right in the center lane and close to the car ahead of me. I've got my window down smoking a cigarette oblivious to my surroundings in an area of town that I'm unfamiliar with. Suddenly from nowhere I hear a man with a pistol pointed at me yelling for me to get out of my car. I've got my fancy Kimber on in a holster with retention strap. I've also got a jacket and seat belt on and my handgun isn't even chambered because I'm uncomfortable with that.

Let's look at the POV of the bad guy...I squeeze the trigger. I drag his dead carcass out. See a pretty Kimber on his hip, pull it out, get in his car and bump the car ahead and start speeding off until stop sticks get the car and eventually get shot to death by LEO's and it was all over a bad rock that I smoked two hours ago.

Let's see it from the POV of the victim...Where the hell am I? Why am I in the unfamiliar part of the city where crime is rampant? I can't move forward, back or to the side with the vehicle. I clearly see the bad guy with a gun on me and hear his demands. I fumble with my safety belt because I'm rushed, I fumble the retention strap on my Kimber because I got a jacket strapped onto it because of the safety belt. I still have to chamber it, aim at the target and squeeze the trigger when all of the sudden I'm sent to the void when the .25 ACP round from that beat to hell, PoS Lorcin automatic he got for $20 discharged by the left side of my head. My world goes black.

Let's see the situation again had the victim did a few simple things;

- I didn't drive in unfamiliar territory avoiding the fight all together.
- I'm aware of my surroundings and observe.
- I stopped my vehicle where I have some maneuver room just in case.
- I've practiced clearing my safety belt and made sure my gun isn't pinned.
- I pulled out my jacket after buckling in and it's merely dr****g over my gun.
- I selected a proper holster that retains but doesn't need extras.
- I've practiced with this holster.
- I've chambered my pistol and have practiced wearing it like that.
- I've practiced with this pistol and familiar with it.

Bottom line is; Talent is good but luck is better at times. I'm not advocating that this scenario would be a win for the victim but little subtle things one can incorporate into your life can make a difference whether one could survive or not. Options are the key here. The latter half and it's tips could give one the edge to survive rather than the demise of our victim in the no win scenario. All I advocate is that you try.

Simple things around the home.

So what does a guy do? Lemme give you an example on my world. I wear sunglasses a lot. It's Florida for heavens sake. I don't like folks seeing what I'm looking at cause I want that upper hand as well. I can't racially profile at work but I can culturally profile things to a point. I use age profiling. Some may argue that it's semantics...if I were a patrol element, yeah...it's not condoned. But I can take into accounts and be aware. Like I said, I can't racially do squat. But even if I were a patrol element I could keep more aware of cultural and age demographics. That's still legal as far as I know but I'd never testify to that. I have also attended some gang tattoo classes. I've seen some tatts that are very sublime unless you know what they mean. Criminals use tatts as covert advertisements, especially if they've done time. Of course, one would wonder to begin with why I'm in a environment where I'm seeing folks like these. Tatt's are great indicators to a former cop. Look around your neighborhood too. A lot of graffiti serves as warning signs to opposing gang members so be aware of them and where they are and where you shouldn't be. In today's society where tattoos are becoming an everyday sight where folks are totally inked up, indicators are there but you may have to look harder.

When assessing up to 30 feet away, a couple things I look at are simple. I look in their eyes. I observe what they are looking at. It works especially well with the sunglasses in the daytime. What are they eyeballing? Escape routes or their next target of opportunity? You never know. I also look where their hands are. Are they naturally swinging as they walk or is it stiff against their bodies...are their hands hidden for a reason? 85% of most folks are right handed and most folks like to have a weapon on their strong side or behind their backs. Is there a bulge nearby? Most folks here in sunny Florida wear just a shirt and shorts. So ankle holsters are out in that case but is the shirt tucked or un-tucked? Could that conceal a weapon? Knife or worse...a gun? Where could I immediately take cover. Are there non-combatants around? Be alert, don't have "blinders" on. Action is faster than reaction. Keep that in mind all the time.

What are my environment factors? Did I park in a nasty neighborhood in a dark spot in the street? How about that lone, dark spot in the Wal-Mart parking lot? Lights are some deterrent. The operative word is deterrent.

I've always taught a very simple lesson in a fight. The closest gun is the immediate threat, not necessarily the biggest one. A close by tango will always be the most dangerous to You.

How about a group? Who seems to be the Alpha? Are they the leadership? Can you take them out first and disperse the others? Do they spread out as they approach you? Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Who is armed? How are they armed? Survival mode kicks in. How can I eliminate the threat most efficiently and move onto the next tango? Kinda like English on a Pool Cue. How do you lead off for the next shot.

What would happen if you and your Wife are getting robbed at knife point or gunpoint in the parking lot one day? Is she on your right side? Does she know to get behind you or will she be deploying as well? That may hamper your possible deployment. Do they have the drop on you to begin with? Will you have to fight? Will they kill you anyway? What would you do? Go over some scenarios in your head. I've always told my "friends" to go to my left side anyways. Since I'm a bit deaf in that ear, I also ask them to speak loud too me as well. Is it a pain in the ass at times? Absolutely but they tolerate it. Better safe than sorry.

Is it normal? Probably not. Is it a little paranoid? Very. Will it hamper how you do things on a day to day basis? Yes. Will it scare your nearby friends? Probably. Will it help you survive? Yes.

Once, I overheard my team leader say this to a difficult client and it was poignant. He merely said to them not to confuse us as a bodyguard. He said "We're not bodyguards. Bodyguards merely get you out of trouble. We're professionals and keep you from trouble in the first place." As simple as that statement is it has a big lesson attached. As martial artists skills grow and grow more, they'll tell you one thing; the higher skill level I've learned the greatest skill is to avoid the fight in the first place. With that in mind let me advocate for you as the regular guy, the best thing in life is to avoid the fight in the first place. Try not to put yourself in a situation where a fight will happen but if it does, finish it.